A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
